Friday Lite - Hummer Anniversary Edition

The labor report was released a short time ago and the news was good. Actually, the news was freakishly good, given the spate of other recent reports showing growing weakness in the economy and dire predictions of another recession.

If there's a slowdown ahead, the jobs market sure isn't playing along.

After finding almost a million new jobs as part of the annual benchmark revision just a month ago, there were more massive upward revisions to the August and September data - the total for these two months increased by almost 150,000 - to go along with the 92,000 new jobs created in October.

The October data had the following winners and losers by category:

• -26,000 - Construction
• -39,000 - Manufacturing
• +43,000 - Professional and Business Services
• +28,000 - Education and Health Services
• +35,000 - Leisure and Hospitality
• +34,000 - Government

Having been out and about in the last few weeks, the availability of food service jobs was pretty clear - nearly every coffee shop and burger joint had a Help Wanted sign in the window. With 26,700 new positions in Food Service and Drinking Places (love that category name) last month, a good number of these have likely come down.

With Professional and Business Services positions sprouting up all over the place, mostly temporary and consulting type help, no one's really taking notice of the exodus in the ranks of granite countertop installers - the number of residential specialty trade contractors fell by more than 30,000 last month.

The worst part of today's report is that the unemployment rate now sits at a freakishly low 4.4 percent.

What's bad about that number?

You're likely to hear it about a million times between now and next Tuesday.

Oh well, it's Friday.

Hummers! One Year Ago Today

One year ago today, things became hectic around here for a few days with the publication of a little story about Hummers. It started like this:

The word around town was that the Hummers weren't moving. It looked like high gas prices and a White House reversal on fuel conservation meant that fewer "W" bumper stickers would find their exposed sticky sides mating gloriously with the smooth rear bumper of an H2, somewhere between the tow loop and the access hole for a Class 3 hitch.

And here's the most popular of the six pictures that accompanied the story:

Click to enlarge ... now here, we will insist - click it and make it bigger

According to an online service that monitors traffic on blogs, on November 4th, 2005, this story was the most popular blog post in the country.

Every few months, usually after a glass of wine or two, this whole sequence of SUV silliness is reviewed and it always yields a chuckle or two. Here's the entire set:

• Hummer Overfloweth
• Deluge
• Inbox Overfloweth
• Epilogue (for now)
• Hummer Overfloweth Still

Here's what it did to the 'ol Sitemeter stats. The Hummer spike will soon be absent from the last year's worth of site statistics, and having grown accustomed to seeing it there for so long, it will be missed.
The oddest part about the whole story is that, to this day, people still come to read it. A rough count of yesterday's traffic shows that about 60 people entered on this page. Sometimes, someone stumbles across it and posts a link on some other website apparently not knowing (or caring) that the story is almost a year old.

Hummers apparently still push the same buttons today as they did back then- people continue to leave comments and argue with each other.

Just two days ago a comment was left that began:

I would definitely say that you have hit a major point about the American gamut; culture, economy, society, with your article about GM's prized Hummer line.

In America we believe that we are superior in every way. That the vehicles we make are unsurpassed. Everyone else thinks we are gas guzzling ____ (you fill in the blank.)

And last month these two agreed to disagree:

Anonymous said...

Actually, yes, you do deserve to be treated like s**t.

You are needlessly aggravating our dependence on foreign oil and posing a safety hazard to drivers who can't see around you and vehicles you end up crushing.

Who am I? Someone who has little trouble carrying the exact same supplies and my children in my hybrid sedan.

Anonymous said...

Apparently you're also someone who thinks it's up to you to say what other people should or shouldn't do. You must be really important. I didn't see in that comment where that person said they bought their Hummer just for the purpose of hauling supplies.

You sound like a truly kind person. A real humanitarian.

Anonymous said...

I have a full size SUV. I drive a Denali and the reason why I like to drive a heavy duty vehicle is because...

Ahhh... memories.

For this occasion, the Hummer inventory could have been checked or maybe a phone call or visit to the Hummer dealer would have yielded an item of interest or two, but it hardly seems worth the effort.

Hummers are so 2005.

The Return of the Short Sale

From Boston comes this story of an increasing number of homeowners who find themselves owing the bank more money than their house is worth when they go to sell it. Lois Meisler of Asset Disposition Management (that must look nice on a business card) sees an opportunity:

While foreclosures are her bread and butter, Meisler sees major potential by specializing in short sales for home and condo owners trying to make the best of a losing hand. Meisler doesn’t buy suggestions from the real estate industry that prices and sales may have finally hit bottom. “The brokers are saying the market is turning when we have hit bottom. I don’t think so,” Meisler said.“We predict that short sales are going to become very popular.” A “short sale” is a process in which the lender agrees to accept less than the full amount of the loan.

The piece written here some time ago, The Return of the Short Sale, continues to be accessed with great frequency via search engines. Ms. Meisler is probably correct - this is just the beginning.

For Some Who Would Prefer to Stay Put ...

The numbers in this report are pretty sobering - while still not at historically high levels (except for Colorado), the trend in foreclosures is certainly pointing upward.

Foreclosures jumped 43 percent nationwide in the third quarter from a year ago, according to RealtyTrac Inc., providing further evidence that the housing market keeps slowing.

About 318,000 properties entered some form of foreclosure in the third quarter, up 17 percent from the second quarter, with sharp jumps in Nevada, Florida and Louisiana.
...
"The market currently is a little lower than expected as buyers try to time their entry," said David Lereah, the group's chief economist.

Why do they continue to quote David Lereah?

It's Grim's Turn

New Jersey blogger James Bednar recently showed up in the mainstream media with this story of what it's like for a 30-year old software weenie to be sitting on the outside looking in on what will likely be remembered as the biggest bubble of them all.

Bednar recently talked to Newhouse News Service writer Sam Ali about the housing market, why he created his blog and the challenges of growing stony coral in his basement.

My whole interest in real estate came after I got married and we started doing the same thing every other newly married couple does. We were renting an apartment and we would go out and try to look for a place and it was intimidating. This was in early 2005, during the frenzy of the bidding wars. We made a bid on two properties and, of course, we were outbid on both and it was just silly.

A very interesting read about the phenomenon that has come to dominate the lives of so many ordinary individuals who five years ago wouldn't have dreamt of doing what they are doing today. No, not flipping real estate - writing blogs.

James' blog can be found here.

Housing Deflation Search Update

It's been some time now since search results for the phrase "housing deflation" were last checked.

August results: 875 for Google, 251 for Yahoo!, and 339 for MSN Search.
Today's results: 951 for Google, 247 for Yahoo! and 360 for MSN Search.

It's still early.

August's Newest Democrat? Moi?

It's not clear how this untruth originated, but let the record show that your author is a die-hard independent who leans in only one direction - toward the bar while awaiting another drink.

The issue is, in a word, inflation. The Bush policy of buggering the dollar and exporting inflation is striking increased numbers of conservatives as crazy. Former conservatives like the blogger Tim Iacono are switching sides. Worldwide inflation promotes instability. As Stirling Newberry notes, Iran is paying less for more military might today than ever before, thanks entirely to Bush Administration policies.

Mercifully, Tuesday will soon be here.

Awakening From Its Slumber

The world's oldest money doesn't seem to be much impressed with the U.S. dollar in recent weeks, although this morning's freakishly good labor report has stemmed the tide (this chart is from yesterday).


Before the mauling of energy prices back in August, it had breached the $650 level on a couple of occasions - just watch what happens to the price of gold if oil prices go back up after the election.

Guessing the Price of Oil and Gold

Speaking of oil and gold, here's an update on the progress of oil and gold prices over the last two weeks along with last month's guesses for the year-end price. Remember that the lucky winner gets a free one-year subscription to Iacono Research.
If you just can't wait until the New Year to see what's over there (something to consider, given recent moves in uranium and precious metals), you can always request a free, no-obligation trial subscription by clicking here.

It's Borat!

Really, where would the world be without Borat?

Click to enlarge

More proof that, at least regarding our taste in entertainment, DEVO was right.