And Then There Were Two

Yesterday, DataQuick reported that only two of Southern California's six counties showed a positive year-over-year change in price.

Sales volume leader Los Angeles County and San Bernardino County showed median price increases of 7.8 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively, while other areas ranged from flat to minus 5.9 percent.

Overall in Southern California, largely a result of the much higher sales level in Los Angeles County, prices rose 5.3 percent from year ago levels.

Not too long ago, the median home price in San Diego County exceeded that in LA, by almost $100,000 at times, but as of about a year ago they parted ways. Now the separation is almost $50,000 in favor of the larger county to the north.

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The year-over-year price changes are getting really interesting now that Orange County and Riverside County have touched the zero mark. You can see just how strong the LA rebound is in the chart below.

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How do you explain the clear difference in price trends between the six counties? Have a look at the census data and see what conclusions you can draw.

• Los Angeles County
• Orange County
• Ventura County
• San Diego County
• Riverside County
• San Bernardino County

No hints are offered and remember that your answer need not be politically correct.

Now that February sales data is in the books, the seasonal rebound in March looms large. As shown below, the change in sales volume from February to March is an annual event. This is the post-Super Bowl buying pickup that occurs every year and both the sales volume and the attendant price patterns will be the first real indication of what lies ahead in 2007.

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Foreclosures should play a large role in this year's real estate sales volume and price trends. You can see pages of "Bank Owned" listings in those colorful real estate guides available at golf courses and supermarkets.

Also, take a look at Zillow.com and see if sales prices during the last two months show any strong trend in your neighborhood. Down the street from here, there was a house that sold last September for $850K and then the new owners put the place up for sale in January at $815K.

It was just reduced to $795K and recent comparable sales were $740K and $760K.

It's not known why the owners are selling - they are long gone now - prompting the question of whether they ever made a payment. Whatever the reason for leaving, that's a hefty haircut in only six months.