Wikinvest Wire

Not much of a plunge

Friday, May 04, 2007

The labor report was released a short time ago. That little bitty rightmost bar hanging below the zero level in the chart below was all that materialized after yesterday's guess at a plunge in construction jobs.

A total of 139,000 new construction jobs were reported by state unemployment agencies in April and the birth/death model added 49,000 for a grand total of 188,000. After seasonal adjustments, the net result was minus 11,000.

Oh well, so much for the theory of early April weather causing a plunge.


Apparently, if any construction workers were let go last month, it was just the illegals who don't show up in the Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Overall, nonfarm payrolls increased by 88,000 last month, the lowest total since late-2004 and part of a continuing decline in the number of new jobs added since peaking at over 300,000 per month in 2005.

The household survey showed a tiny increase in the unemployment rate, rising from 4.4 percent to 4.5 percent, and average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent to $17.25.


For the first time in a very long while, there were downward revisions to the previous two months of data. The February total was revised from 113,000 down to 90,000 and the count in March fell from 180,000 to 177,000.

No one on CNBC was heard subtracting the 26,000 revision from the 88,000 new jobs in April for a "more accurate" monthly change of 62,000, as was routinely the case when upward revisions were the norm.

The health care industry provided the bulk of the job gains with 47,400 new positions while governments and restaurants each added another 25,000. Professional and business services added 24,000 spots highlighted by over 11,000 each for computer systems designers and technical consultants.

Posting net job losses for the month were retail trade (-26,000), manufacturing (-19,000), construction (-11,000), and financial activities (-11,000). Within the retail trade category, a whopping 41,000 positions were lost at department stores and general merchandise stores.

In the little noticed "personal and laundry services" category almost 6,000 jobs were added along with a similar amount for "membership associations and organizations".

Overall, it's probably a good thing that Americans continue to dine out and drink as much as they do - this results in a continuing stream of new jobs at "food service and drinking establishments" along with positions in "health services" to help deal with the long-term consequences of humungous portion sizes and overly-generous bartenders.

4 comments:

jmf said...

hello from germany,

stocks rally no matter what the news are....

thank god that gold is doing the same :-)

the biggest problem with the birt/death number is that they added 46.000 to 317.000 yoy despite a slumping economy.

more downward revisiosns are coming......

Anonymous said...

nice try on the plunge prediction... i was rooting for you

Anonymous said...

From what I've seen, most homebuilders are continuing with their projects that are already started. I would guess once these projects are complete, there will be a lot more layoffs. But not much point in leaving half-built homes, so might as well finish 'em.

Anonymous said...

Or more likley the home builders run out of money. Around here (Bozeman MT) there is a small number of half built homes. They are from contractors that were unable to get financing to finish. Nobody around here wants to believe the parties is over.

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