Wikinvest Wire

The week in charts

Friday, May 04, 2007

Another week and four more all-time highs for the Dow. Ho-hum. Larry Kudlow is happy but somehow most of America would probably have lower gas prices than a higher Dow.

Filling up very infrequently these days, it was surprising to see unleaded regular at $3.60. According to GasBuddy.com, you could do a little better than that around here, but not much. A quick search of this blog reveals that the last time the SUV Fill Up Index was updated was about a year ago when regular was only $3.30.

That seems cheap now - it's time for an update.

For those of us who pay more attention to the price of stocks than the price of regular unleaded, it was a good week all around. Just about everything went up, including the model portfolio at Iacono Research, now back at a comfortable +9.0 percent on the year (though the major U.S. indices have been catching up lately, now all over six percent).

To have a look at recent market commentary and see what's in a model portfolio of natural resource investments, click here for a no obligation two-week free trial.

Oil sure didn't go up this week. The oil inventory has been piling up in recent weeks because they just can't get enough of the black stuff through the refineries and out to the gas stations - hence the higher gas prices. Word came late this week that when refineries are back to normal, they'll have more than enough crude oil to make gasoline over the summer - hence the lower oil prices. We'll see.


Wholesale gasoline prices actually fell this week and along with a falling oil price you'd think that energy stocks would suffer a little bit but that was not the case.


Gold tested the $670 level twice and bounced back up both times finishing the week strong. Does anybody else get the feeling that just when gold is set to break out again that equities will correct and gold will go down along with them?


The gold miners showed some life this week after the plunge on Tuesday - it looks like traders were just waiting for the $670 level to be tested and then they came back in.


And the dollar pretty much took the week off, hanging around between 81.5 and 82.0, buoyed by manufacturing reports early in the week before being dragged back down a little after the weak labor report. Don't be surprised if it stays between 81 and 82 for a little while - is anyone really ready for the move below 80?


Well, the "sell in May and go away" adage would not have benefited investors on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. Whether it would have been best to cash in today will be revealed next week.

Jeremy Grantham has probably sold a few shares this week if his April note is any indication. See this Bloomberg story for details - It’s Everywhere, In Everything: The First Truly Global Bubble.

3 comments:

sk said...

Talking about gas prices, forgive me for tooting my own horn but you should check out my retail gas price 3 day 'gas cast' - tells you the best day in the next 3 to buy gas on. I predict for the LA area - in back testing it did pretty well, shaving an average of 2 cents/gallon per fill. You can see it at bullseyepredictions.com

I'll publish monthly lift numbers as time passes - meantime I've moved on to looking at predicting air quality in the LA area using stochastic techniques - first 3 day forecast by mid May I hope.
Back to regular scheduled programming.

-K

Anonymous said...

I can believe that about the fuel prices, especially the shafting us diesel users are taking on fuel prices. Diesel should be higher than premium gasoline, what a joke.

Arthur

Anonymous said...

I am an investor not a trader and hence have no real expertise in technical analysis, however it is interesting to note that before the gold market broke out in that mad bull run the RSI had touched a low of 20 4 times. The next time it hit that level was on the correction down from 700. I am long gold since we are no doubt. However if I would be in it solely for the trade I would wait until we see further declines in the RSI.

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