Wikinvest Wire

Worth reading for the section on housing

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

A new book by Daniel Gross will be out next week. With an eye-catching 60's era cover and an intriguing title, Pop! Why Bubbles Are Great For The Economy, the real suspense lies in what the Slate columnist has to say about what some call the biggest one of them all - the world-wide housing bubble.

The premise appears to be that, despite the mania associated with rapid economic change, where businessmen, investors, and much of the populace lose their collective heads bidding up share prices for railroad companies or dot coms, technological innovation proceeds at a rapid pace and after the inevitable popping, something good is left behind.

While it is clear that better transportation and low-cost broadband for all have had a beneficial impact after all the gains and losses had been tallied and the last teary eye had been dried, the lasting good after speculative manias in tulip bulbs and, more recently, housing is less certain.

Bubbles—from hot stocks in the 1920s to hot stocks in the 1990s—are much-lamented features of contemporary economic life. Time and again, American investors, seduced by the lures of quick money, new technologies, and excessive optimism, have shown a tendency to get carried away. Time and again, they have appeared foolish when the bubble burst. The history of finance is filled with tragic tales of shattered dreams, bankruptcies, and bitter recriminations.

But what if the I-told-you-so lectures about bubbles tell only half the story? What if bubbles accomplish something that can only be seen in retrospect? What if the frenzy of irrational economic enthusiasm lays the groundwork for sober-minded opportunities, growth, and innovation? Could it be that bubbles wind up being a competitive advantage for the bubble-prone U.S. economy?

In this entertaining and fast-paced book—you'll laugh as much as you cry—Daniel Gross convincingly argues that every bubble has a golden lining. From the 19th-century mania for the telegraph to the current craze in alternative energy, from railroads to real estate, Gross takes us on a whirlwind tour of reckless investors and pie-in-the-sky promoters, detailing the mania they created—but also the lasting good they left behind.

In one of the great ironies of history, Gross shows how the bubbles once generally seen as disastrous have actually helped build the commercial infrastructures that have jump-started American growth. If there is a secret to the perennial resilience and exuberance of the American economy, Gross may just have found it in our peculiar capacity to blow financial bubbles—and successfully clean up the mess.
Well, that was a fine choice of words - millions of us wondering how the mess that Greenspan made is going to be successfully cleaned up. Many observers are willing to give the former Fed chairman a pass on the whole late-1990s technology boom because of all the fiber optic cable that was left laying around is now being put to good use.

Despite all the hand-wringing, something good was left behind.

But what good can be expected to linger after all the bad real estate loans are called in and activity in the homebuilding industry reverts back to levels where ordinary people buy ordinary houses just one at a time?

When the history is written, it is more likely that the housing bubble will be seen as just an easy-money fling for the stock-averse majority of the population who just sat, watched, and wondered about Amazon.com and their ilk in the late 1990s.

The Financial Times provided this review:
But could it be that the cassandras have it all wrong and that bubbles are actually a blessing, not a curse? This is the heretical idea advanced in a provocative book, Pop! Why Bubbles are Great for the Economy, which sketches out a history of the bubbles that have swept through America over the past 150 years. . . . an entertaining primer on market madness. . . thoroughly accessible to a broad audience. . . But brutal or not, Gross’s thesis is a thought-provoking one for modern investors, particularly given that the bubble phenomenon shows no sign of disappearing.
The suspense is just killing me.

Aside from being an after-effect of some other event, such as late 19th century land booms when the next leg of the railroad was announced and towns sprung up out of nowhere, how is a real estate bubble great for an economy?

Does it have something to do with granite countertops?

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Does this guy have any idea what a bubble does to an economy? It creates malinvestment of limited resources into projects that have no long-term profitability. If there had been no tech bubble or housing bubble, those investment assets could have been used to drill for oil or build nuclear power plants. Instead, we are left with miles of empty (ugly) houses and a severe energy crisis on the horizon. A pretty big price to pay for a $2 discount on broadband.

Anonymous said...

From the review at Amazon -- "He concludes—with admirable practicality—by calling for a "real bubble" to jump-start alternative-energy programs."

Anonymous said...

Hey, don't forget all the developed Florida swapland that we will be left with after the recent housing bubble!

Unknown said...

Does he realize that the government raided my 401k through inflation to fund the housing boom?
Yeah it makes me real happy that I helped fund some idiots 3 car garage.

Anonymous said...

As one who has lived in the Northern Rockies for fifteen years, I can clearly spell out one significant consequence of the railroad boom: that is the checker board land ownership of private and public lands. The result: some good quality public lands mixed with clear cut private and formerly railroad lands. Anyone flying over this part of the country can see the checker board as clear as the stars at night (unless you live in a city whence the stars diappear in the glow of electricity).

The more devastating consequence of the railroad boom and the subsequent 'opening' of the West as a little something called genocide - of native american Indians, that is.

So, these bubbles aren't just some sideshow of a capitalist system gone bonkers; the consequences effect real lives, real cultures, as well as biodiversity.
Don Smith

Anonymous said...

Well, in California, people turned those big empty houses into pot farms, and there have been some nice increases in hydroponics and lighting technology as entire neighborhoods are converted to growing pot....

Anonymous said...

Don Smith:

Check this out...

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/010807G.shtml

"This course places before the human species the unprecedented fact that it has reached or soon will reach the planet's limits, which could, through feedback effects, threaten the species' own existence. But this course is all the more difficult to arrest, Hervé Kempf deems, because it depends on a semi-authoritarian regime ever more institutionalized at the planetary level. It even depends, he says, on crises like that of September 11 in order to appreciably reduce those human rights that had been acquired through elevated struggle and to neutralize, even cause to disappear, those democratic mechanisms that allow free public debate on the choice of plans, the social choices that the workings of the economy repeatedly raise."

Best regards,

Econolicious

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