The clowns in Washington
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
In this Bloomberg video, commodity bull Jim Rogers expresses his displeasure regarding last week's Fed rate cut even though he and anyone else with natural resource investments have made a ton of money in recent weeks.
That is odd - expressing disappointment after having what may be your best five weeks ever - not something you are likely to hear from others on Wall Street. There probably aren't too many hedge fund managers or executives at big banks who last week commented, "You know, the money is flowing again and now it looks like there will be some good year-end bonuses, but in the long-term, this is not going to be good for the dollar".
Since Ben Bernanke and the rest of the voting members of the Federal Reserve made clear they are willing to let the dollar sink, broad equity markets have risen smartly, but commodity prices and related shares have soared.
You'd think that Jim Rogers would be hootin' and hollerin', but he isn't:It pains me that those guys in Washington are so dumb. They're cutting interest rates, they're destroying the dollar - the U.S. dollar is making multi, multi-year lows and it's going to go much, much lower. I don't understand who these clowns are. They don't understand how markets work.
At this point, interviewer Betty Liu noted that both equities and bonds rallied as a result of last week's rate cut - a comment that hopefully is not representative of the rest of the mainstream financial media. Movements in interest rates and bond prices are often confused by the man on the street, but they shouldn't be confused at Bloomberg (don't they teach you "prices down, yields up" on your first day at Bloomberg?)
It's devastating to me and to many foreigners who are creditors of the U.S. and to many Americans it's going to mean that interest rates will move higher, inflation is going to be higher, commodities are going to go much, much higher -it's madness.
They have signaled to the world that they don't care about the value of the U.S. dollar and therefore commodities will go much, much higher.
On the prospect of more interest rate cuts as now encouraged by Dallas Fed President Richard "Ninth Inning" Fisher, Rogers had this to say:The more they cut, the more long-term interest rates are going to go higher, and the more inflation is going to go up, the more commodities are going to go up, and the more the U.S. dollar is going to go down.
On the outlook for a recession:Well, who knows, let's see what happens in Washington. If they keep making mistakes, the recession is going to be longer and deeper than any of us want and we should suffer, but if they do the right things, then conceivably, we'll have the pain, and we'll get it over with.
Never before has someone who has made so much money in the last month sounded so unhappy. Maybe if you have as much money as Jim Rogers, money really doesn't matter anymore.
Recessions are not the end of the world. We've been having them for over 200 years in America and all around the world. They clean out the system - that's what they're designed to do - some people lose their jobs and some people have to suffer, but basically, overall, we all come out better after a recession. Let's hope that in Washington they don't bungle it like they usually do. They seem to be bungling it right now.
In comments to subscribers at Iacono Research last week, I noted:Of course this works out well for natural resource investments as evidenced by the dramatic increase in the value of the model portfolio and this is what I expected to happen, but, like many others, deep down inside I think I secretly held out some hope for some Paul Volcker-style tough-love that would perhaps better align with the nation's best long-term interests. Oh well.
Oh well.
10 comments:
and there's so much more fun to come as petro-dollars turn into petro-anything-but-dollars.
I'll have to remember that one: "petro-anything-but-dollars"
Jim Rogers is long the dollar and lives abroad, so of course he is disappointed that the dollar was weakened.
But frankly the dollar needs to become weaker. The US needs to eliminate its massive trade imbalance and that will only happen with (a) tariffs, or (b) a weakening of the dollar and reduction of wages. Of course Jim is all for the reduction in wages - he is very jubilant about the Chinese willingness to work for subsistence wages and not ask for vacation, trumpeting on Bloomberg the other day how great it was that the Chinese don't ask for how many vacation days they get, like the impliedly lazy Americans, but asking how many days they can work (he, of course, is entitled to billions, and all the vacation he can stomach, since he is just better than all those masses, having made vast fortunes by playing paper games at the expense and on the backs of actual workers and producers).
So Jim is showing nothing but his crass selfishness, and his unbridled greed. And you find that remarkable, exactly how? It's a sad day when a robber barron like Jim Rogers is held up as the idea.
Jim has also said he is short US stocks and financial stocks in particular.
I think Jim is worried that the secular boom in commodities will turn into a bubble.
Bernanke knows housing prices are in the process of correcting sharply. His worst nightmare is for housing wealth to be destroyed simultaneous with a sharp reduction in stock market wealth. If both asset classes deflate at the same time, consumer spending will likely slow to a trickle, creating a downward sprial of rising unemployment and increased corporate bankruptcies. The financial system is already stressed from mortgage/housing related bankruptcies. And unemployment is only 4.6%! Can you imagine what would happen to the system if mortage bankruptcies escalated even more, and corporate bankruptcies started climbing from their near historic low levels?
I think Rogers is greatly downplaying the consequences of a recession under those circumstance. I think it could lead to a very severe recession that resembled the deflationary episode of Japan. To cope, Japan let people borrow money essentially interest free. 18 years later, they still haven't recovered.
You can drop money from helicopters, but you can't make people spend it. Between the evils of inflation and deflation, Bernanke knows inflation is easier to fix than deflation.
What's wrong with deflation? Why wouldn't you want things to cost less? Inflation is theft. Deflation is progress.
There will be no Volcker. A nation of debtors with foreign creditors has no incentive to keep inflation under control. We will monetize the debt and screw the foreigners. I mean, seriously, which president, in his right mind, would appoint a guy like Volcker to the Fed?
There is going to be a contraction, the question is whether it will be inflationary or deflationary. The former, like a late-20th century Latin Republic, Weimar Germany, the Confederate South, or Articles of Confederation America, wipe out good money with the bad. This leads creditors to withhold support of the status quo which is very politically destabilizing; it also leaves a poor foundation for economic recovery. The latter is also painful, but it is often less disruptive to the political status quo and more conducive to eventual economic regeneracy.
Unfortunately, it looks like we may have a constitutional convention, or even a revolution on our hands in the coming years.
"Oh well" indeed. :-(
-Vespucian
Rogers is a complete moron. I have heard him say things that show a complete lack of understanding of the way certain markets work on the most fundamental basis. He is actually one of the few people I have less respect for than Greenspan (hard as that sounds to believe).
We will monetize the debt and screw the foreigners. Wouldn't suprise me if the USA starts a war with the rest of the world.... it doesn't havea ny friends out there...
Everytime Rogers spilt the beans he was interupted or faded out for a commercial break, no wonder he's left the USA...
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