Guess the year-end price of oil and gold!
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Welcome to the third semi-annual "Guess the price of oil and gold contest" where readers can compete to win a free one-year subscription to the companion investment website Iacono Research. This edition should be much more exciting than the last one, won by reader DR as shown below, notable only for the lack of movement in either price.
Earlier this year, from the beginning of May to the end of June, oil rose about $5 and gold fell back about $15 with relatively small moves from week to week - pretty dull.
A summary of the top ten finishers is shown below with your humble scribe placing in position number six, nailing the price of oil but, as usual, a bit early for the yellow metal.
Since the conclusion of that contest both oil and gold have risen about 13 percent with the price of oil setting a new all-time nominal high (literally, off-the-chart) and with gold surpassing last year's May high.
After the last two months, who knows where things might end up by year-end.
Yendor's honorable mention guesses of $80 oil and $750 gold a few months back don't look so bad today - he too was a bit early.
As you might guess from the table above, the contest is based on the combined percentage differences between the guessed values and the closing prices on December 31st using the near-month (February) Nymex futures contract for WTI crude oil and the COMEX closing price for gold bullion. If either the Nymex or COMEX are closed on that day, the previous close will be used (I think they do half-day sessions, but I don't recall).
Entries may be made either by posting them in the comments section of this post or sending mail to either tim-at-iaconoresearch.com or tliacono-at-yahoo.com. All entries must be received no later than October 10th, two weeks from today - there will be two more notices such as this one as reminders and current subscribers can win a free one-year extension to their existing subscription.
The winner will be announced on December 31st - good luck to all!
16 comments:
First again, same guess as last time $72 and $720, don't ask me why.,
ok me too. this doesnt cost anything right? i think the peak in oil will be here--- $100 even. gold however will see CB sales and china wont buy until 2008--- $725.
sincerely,
captain morgan
I updated the chart to include the current price and, in case anyone else is wondering why this is being started with more than three months left to go in the year, I just thought last time around the six week duration was far too short.
90 and 785
$86 & $775
62 and 590
$67.50 and $765.50
Actually I think for measuring the cumulative error it's better to use Pythagoras:
Cum% = SQRT( Oil%^2 + Gold%^2 ).
For example someone who is of by 3% and 3% is actually off by SQRT(18)%
and one who is of by 0% and 5% is off by SQRT(25)%
So the first person is closer to the real values than the second. But if you just add the %'s up the second one would win.
Just my two pennies.
Love your site Tim.
Tim,
I agree with Gertjan about using Pythagoras, not only because it would have moved me up to #4 in the above list. It's just a more linear estimation of error. Once again, just my $.02
Unfortunately, it would have moved you down to #10. Sorry for you.
My new guesses are as follows to finish out the year. (BTW, I am still long GLD, but with a smaller position.
Gold: $735
Oil: $84
Good luck to all!
Chuck Ponzi
I'll have a look at the proposed methodology to determine a winner and provide an update in the next week or two. To be honest, I don't like the idea of me being pushed from #6 to #10 in the last contest after my hours and hours of deliberation in arriving at my guesses. We'll see.
Please put me down for $825 on gold and $90 on oil.
-Vespucian
850 and 95
- CP
888 and 88
southernquebec
$85.50 for oil, $800 for gold.
- todderberger
I like southernquebec's methodology. :)
Oil - 77
Gold - 777
Furthersouth
Future comments on this post are now disabled and I'll have all the entries tabulated in a day or two.
Post a Comment