Wikinvest Wire

Once again, not his fault

Friday, September 07, 2007

The Wall Street Journal reports($) on another Alan Greenspan sighting where the former Fed chairman once failed to make the connection between basic human instincts and easy money policies by the central bank.

Mr. Greenspan, Fed chairman from 1987 to 2005 and now a private consultant, said business expansions are driven by euphoria and contractions by fear While economists tend to think the same factors drive expansions and contractions, ."the expansion phase of the economy is quite different, and fear as a driver, which is going on today, is far more potent than euphoria."

The euphoria in human nature takes over when the economy is expanding for several years, and leads to bubbles, "and these bubbles cannot be defused until the fever breaks," he said.

Bubbles can't be defused through incremental adjustments in interest rates, Mr. Greenspan suggested. The Fed doubled interest rates in 1994-95 and "stopped the nascent stock-market boom," but when stopped, stocks took off again. "We tried to do it again in 1997," when the Fed raised rates a quarter of a percentage point, and "the same phenomenon occurred."

"The human race has never found a way to confront bubbles," he said.
Apparently, this is just how the world works - one bubble after another.

The rampant creation of money and credit along with encouraging an entire generation to take on more risk have nothing to do with the financial bubbles that now seem to come and go regularly.

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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

"American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage. To the degree that households are driven by fears of payment shocks but are willing to manage their own interest rate risks, the traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home."

They can't stop bubbles and they can't see inflation.

plymster said...

The Fed doubled interest rates in 1994-95 and "stopped the nascent stock-market boom," but when stopped, stocks took off again. "We tried to do it again in 1997," when the Fed raised rates a quarter of a percentage point, and "the same phenomenon occurred."

So if you raise rates, that fends off the bubble. But if you stop raising rates, then the bubble continues. Hmmm... maybe you should, ... oh, I dunno ... CONTINUE TO RAISE RATES YOU SENILE OLD FOOL!

But I can see how you'd be hesitant to raise them another quarter point...

By the way, I was thinking of a good caption for that photo:

"I'll give 5 million bucks to anyone who can find my butt with both hands!"

Anonymous said...

Nah, I think the caption would read: "How many points would you cut today Mr. Greenie if you were still fed?"

Anonymous said...

Just abolish the Privately Owned Federal Reserve Bank Corporation, go back to a Gold and Silver backed currency. How many more times are we going to let the FED screw up our economy?

Anonymous said...

"these bubbles cannot be defused until the fever breaks": his English has degenerated from inscrutable to unpardonable.

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