"Understand the full significance of what is happening"
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Bloomberg has full coverage of a presentation made by Jim Rogers yesterday at an ABN Amro investors' conference in Amsterdam. The video is of poor quality (audio-only) and the report glosses over some important points, but they are both worth a look.
The headline of the report indicates the long-time commodities bull is shifting all his assets out of U.S. dollars and into Chinese yuan - something about the Federal Reserve, debasement of the currency, and extreme pessimism about the U.S. economy.Since the Fed lowered U.S. interest rates on Sept. 18, the first cut in four years, the dollar has fallen 2.8 percent against the euro and touched a record low yesterday. Gold rose to a 27-year high and platinum jumped to a record.
The video is about ten minutes long and gets off to a rollicking start:
"It's the official policy of the central bank and the U.S. to debase the currency,'' said Rogers, a former partner of George Soros.
"The U.S. dollar is and has been the world's reserve currency, the world's medium of exchange,'' he said. "That's in the process of changing. The pound sterling, which used to be the world's reserve currency, lost 80 percent of its value, top to bottom, as it went through the whole period of losing its status as the world's reserve currency.''China is the next great country in the world. Whether you like it or not. A lot of people in America and a lot of people in the West don't like the idea that China is the next great country in the world.
Toward the end of the video, the discussion turned to investing in commodities:
I know they call themselves Communists in China, but I will tell you that they are among the best capitalists in the world, maybe THE best capitalists in the world right now.
In China they save and invest over 35 percent of their income, in America we save and invest less than two percent of our income.
In China, when they come to work they don't say, "How many days holiday do I get", they say, "How many days can I come to work".
They want to live the way we do - they know how we live in the West - they're willing to work as hard as they have to and they're willing to save and invest as much as they have to.
The 19th century was the century of the U.K., the 20th century was the century of the U.S., the 21st century is going to be the century of China.
...
The best advice I can give you - the best advice of any kind - is to teach your children and your grandchildren Chinese. It's going to be the most important language in their lifetime.Most people need a secular bull market to make a lot of money - a market that is essentially rising all the time, just as stocks were in the 80s and 90s. Well, we have a market like that now in raw materials, natural resources, commodities - call them what you will.
Obviously, Rogers remains bullish on commodities noting that the current bull market is likely to last for another 7 to 15 years.
When I try to tell people about commodities, most people get confused, most people don't have a clue, most people cannot spell 'commodities' yet. Most people think you get your coffee at Starbucks - they don't know you can buy and sell this stuff and make a lot of money.
But I would remind you that thirty years ago, most people in the world, in fact most people in Europe, couldn't spell 'mutual fund'. Most people didn't have a clue what a mutual fund was thirty years ago. There weren't any in the world, believe it or not. If you had gone to Madrid or Paris or Rome as recently as 1980 and said to them, "How do you get to the stock exchange", people would have looked at you and said, "What is the stock exchange?"
They didn't know what a stock exchange was - I was here, I know.
They didn't have a clue what a stock exchange even was thirty years ago. Then we had a big bull market - we had television, we had everything, and everybody learned about a bull market in stocks and mutual funds.
Well, that's what commodities are now. Most people in the world know nothing about them, most people in the world have never invested in them.
In the world right now there are over 70,000 mutual funds for the public to invest in stocks and bonds. There are fewer than 50 for the public to invest in commodities. This is an unknown, untouched, uninvested asset class, which is one reason why it's going to go up so, so much more.
To learn more about investing in natural resources using commonly traded ETFs, stocks, and mutual funds, see this description at Iacono Research. Or, sign up for a free trial.
10 comments:
Didn't we hear this same crap about Japan?
They are totally export dependant and have not had a significant crisis yet. They never had a labor movement and the economic situation of 95% of the population is crap.
They are also going to have to face the problems with the single child policy. That will be an epic disaster.
India and China suffer from over population and lack of resources.
We have difficult to handle problems. They have near impossible ones.
When the dust settles (assuming India, China and Russia fight amoung themselves) we will be the last ones standing.
Our big problem right now are bad trade policies (labor getting crushed by repressive regimes and outsourcing) along with oil dependance.
Oil dependance will be cured in 10-12 years.
The labor problems... well we will go protectionist.
LAEF2
They are not only totally export dependent, their exports are only competitive because their government is deliberately depressing their currency. Their population is being enslaved by monetary policy. For the benefit of Americans, I might add. Which is part of our problem: slavery is toxic to the slave holders as well as the slaves. As bad as Greenspan was, the Chinese government is worse. The Chinese are also facing environmental disaster, massive civil unrest, and they're "coming of age" as an economy during a time when commodities are becoming increasingly scarce.
As we crash, China will crash. Americans will tighten their belts and change their ways, and be better off for it. But the Chinese will die by the millions.
A and J, you're a couple ripe examples of denial for sure. BTW, who is debasing their currency now? Recall, the RMB like many other currencies is simply a peg to the supposedly stable reserve version. And, suppose a 40 yr experiment in Marxism isn't a labor movement. Get used to it.
How funny, Jimmy Rogers, who has yet to earn an honest dollar in his life, claims, "In China, when they come to work they don't say, 'How many days holiday do I get', they say, 'How many days can I come to work'." That's fantastic for Mr. Billionaire, who himself takes vast long vacations, since he can exploit people so much more. Better yet, in China they don't need health care and don't complain about the chemicals that are killing them. Isn't that wonderful, Mr. Rogers? You can poison your workers and discard them when they get sick. A wonderful capitalist country indeed!
Would touring the world on motorbike and writing a book about it qualify as earning an honest dollar?
Lots of Jim Rogers fans out there I see...
Take a look at the Bloomberg interview with Rogers. Fun stuff!
Jim Rogers is a *good* man. Look at all he does:
1. By diverting his investor's money from America to Asia, he places money in the most productive arena, thereby increasing global productivity for everyone.
2. By diverting his investor's money to Asia, he protects his investor's wealth. For this, he deserves to charge a (large) fee.
3. By publicly voicing his (correct) opinions, he helps all of his listeners understand what's coming and profit from it.
I like Jim but I have a couple issues with what he's saying. Maybe someone here can explain:
1. What's going to happen to china's exports when America goes crashing?
2. When you buy stocks you're buying a company that does something or produces something. Commodities are just things that sit there. How can we have an extended commodity bubble that's any different from a housing bubble?
Joon,
1. China will definitely feel the pain if America suddenly stops buying their inexpensive goods (as hard as that possibility is to believe) - two things to consider are that they export more to Europe than to the U.S. and they are developing a consumer class of their own.
2. The price of commodities has almost as much to do with money (and in particular, U.S. Dollars) as it has to do with the commodities themselves. When something is in high demand and it has to be dug out of the ground at great effort and expense, sometimes all it really has to do is sit there when its price is denominated in dollars that are created with virtually zero effort and at zero expense. When the demand exceeds the production (as it does now with crude oil), then both the numerator and the denominator in the price equation change (i.e., a less valuable dollar over a more valuable barrel of oil results $90 oil).
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