The worst ex-hurricane inflation since 1991
Thursday, December 20, 2007
There's been a note laying around here for a few days now about putting up a long-term chart for the U.S. consumer price index in order to put last months' 4.3 percent year-over-year inflation rate into proper historical perspective. Well, here it is:
Excluding the hurricane effected data of late-2005, you have to go all the way back to 1991 to find an annual inflation rate higher than what was seen last month.
Some big numbers will be rolling out of the year-over-year calculation in the months ahead, as shown circled in red below, but most analysts are not looking for a big decline in the months ahead unless oil plunges to $55 like it did a year ago.
There's a slightly different dynamic now that a much weaker dollar has worked its way through the global financial system.
For example, apparel prices rose 0.8 percent from October to November, the biggest monthly increase in ten years. This category has been dominated by imports in the last decade and, during that time, has shown consistently declining prices which have helped to offset soaring costs for domestic services like health care and college tuition.
1 comments:
Don't forget the Boskin commission knocked over one percentage point off of the index in 1996 by changing the way they did substitution and quality adjustments.
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