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A bottom in home prices in 2009?
Thursday, January 03, 2008
The home price survey in the sidebar now has enough responses to provide something of a meaningful result - apparently there are at least four realtors reading this blog.
When the survey first started out, the responses were skewed more toward 2013 than 2009, but then it shifted back toward 2009 and the bars have been about the same relative size for some time now.
If the 1990s housing boom/bust cycle in California is a good guide, we won't see a bottom in home prices nationally until five or six years after the peak which would put the next bottom closer to 2011 than 2009.
We'll see.
The survey will be left up for a while longer for those of you haven't already voted (only one vote per computer apparently), but it will be moved a bit lower on the sidebar.
8 comments:
I had to say 2013, as there is no option for 2014.
How long did it take Japan's real estate bubble to bottom?
Realtors would have voted for 2007, those four votes must by my co-worker who just closed before Christmas
Cheer up, a huge earthquake may demolish much of the housing stock, and then prices will recover.
Interstingly, since the graphic was moved to the center panel in this post, the new votes have come in as follows:
2008 - 0
2009 - 2
2010 - 4
2011 - 7
2012 - 11
2013 - 6
After 163 responses the consensus is 16-Feb-2011 +- 534 days, so between September 2009 and July 2012.
I lived in LA 1985-1992, Tokyo 1992-2000, SF 2000-2007 so I know what a bubble looks like. . .
They will raise the conforming limit to $1M, drop rates to 2% again, but that will only control the rate of descent since speculators won't enter into any "Dow Theory" declining market.
2025 is my guess. . . we've got a quasi-Depression between us and that date.
also, as a Georgist I tend to believe when they jack tax rates up 3-10%, the fat is that can pay that will prove to be Ground Rents.
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