Wikinvest Wire

Oil chart porn from the Wall Street Journal

Thursday, January 03, 2008

As might be expected, the Wall Street Journal graphics department put together a great collection of charts for today' online edition of the paper in commemoration of yesterday's single crude oil futures contract that changed hands at an even $100.

In fact, included in about a half dozen reports on crude oil was an entire story on that one trade, "Record-Setting Trade Raised Doubts, But It Was Real", which, unfortunately is behind the subscription wall (come on Rupert, make the online version free).

Fortunately, the charts are in the public area of the WSJ and they are worth a good look. Here's the one that most surprised me under the right-most tab "The Biggest Users" (for larger crisper charts, follow the link above).
This is per capita use, so, in absolute terms, Saudi Arabia doesn't come close to the consumption levels of more populated countries such as the U.S or Japan, but consumption per person exceeding that of the U.S. and a brisk rate of change are pretty surprising.

Much has been written about the increasing domestic use of oil in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Middle East, but this puts things into better perspective along with the chart below.

Of course the much more significant story is China, where per capita consumption is rising at more than eight percent per year as more and more people begin to drive cars and consume other products that use oil.

With global production essentially fixed at about 85 million barrels per day
(at least for the time being), incremental changes to global demand are critical and that's where China is so important as shown below. The new demand from the Middle East is pretty important too.
The other charts are very good as well, particularly the first one with real and nominal prices going back to 1976 and the cool mouse-over feature.

In case you were wondering, the reason this post is titled "chart porn" (a term shamelessly stolen from Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture) is that if you open the charts with a Windows Internet Explorer browser using Windows Vista, you get multiple windows opening on a somewhat random basis (at least, that's what happened to me).

It reminded me of six or eight years ago when a co-worker would come by and say, "Type in www.whitehouse.com" and up would come some porn site that proceeded to open more and more windows faster than you could close them ... and then the boss would walk by.

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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

haha I thought I was the only one that fell for the whitehouse.com joke.

Anonymous said...

Record-Setting Trade Raised Doubts,
But It Was Real
By AARON LUCCHETTI and MATT CHAMBERS
January 3, 2008; Page A8
It was the trade that reverberated around the world. But for a while, everyone wondered if it was real.

In a tumultuous trading session, crude-oil prices rose more than $3 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. But the price unexpectedly jumped by an additional 50 cents, hitting $100 a barrel, before quickly receding and settling at $99.62.

TRADE OF THE CENTURY MARK

Oil futures touched $100 a barrel for the first time. Other key developments:
• At $99.62, the futures finished with a $3.64 rise, or 3.8%.
• Price range on the Nymex floor was $97.74 to $100 (the open was $97.75). On the Globex electronic system, the range was $96.05 to $99.81 (from Tuesday night to 5:15 p.m. EST Wednesday).
• Oil remains off $3.19, or 3.1%, from the inflation-adjusted record $102.81 (in November dollars), set in 1980.
• Oil futures are up 71% from 52 weeks ago.
Source: WSJ Market Data Group; Nymex
While analysts and traders have been debating for months if and when crude would hit the triple-digit milestone, few predicted it would occur like this. A little before 12:10 p.m. Eastern time yesterday, the price of crude oil for February delivery hovered at about $99.40. Prices posted on Nymex electronic screens and through traders that work on Nymex's floor then suddenly diverged.

The price on the computers -- which handle the vast majority of Nymex futures activity -- inched up to about $99.50 a barrel for the next few minutes. On the floor, however, where some investors still prefer to send their more complicated trades, the price shot up to $99.90 a barrel -- and then hit $100 on one trade.

In the confusion that followed, some traders said they thought the trade would be canceled because it was about 50 cents away from where the price was trading on the screens. While at least one trade was canceled, the one at $100 stood and will be kept as the volatile day's high price.

MORE ON $100 OIL

1
• Interactive Graphic: Oil's Steady Climb2
• The Road to $100 Oil -- and Beyond3
1/3/07
• High Oil May Sap U.S. Economic Growth4
1/3/07
• Foreign-Fuel Reliance Stirs Candidates5
1/3/07
• Squeeze's Effect Is Amplified on Less Affluent6
1/3/07
• Commodities: Year Starts Strong for Oil, Gold7
1/3/07
• Vote: Where are oil prices headed next?8
• Deal Journal: No Gusher for Big-Oil M&A9
Nymex officials said that during the run-up, one trade occurred for 10 contracts at $99.90 a barrel, and another took place at about the same time when one contract changed hands at $100.

Both trades came to Nymex from a "commercial customer" rather than from a speculator, said James Newsome, Nymex's president and chief executive. He declined to elaborate. To keep a trade as legitimate, both sides have to agree that the transaction was made and the exchange needs to be satisfied that neither trader stepped out of order in putting the trade together.

The $100 purchase was made through an independent floor broker, Richard Arens, who runs a brokerage named ABS, said several people on the Nymex floor. Mr. Arens couldn't be reached to comment.

Analysts point out that the trade could have resulted from the fact that few other buyers or sellers were on the floor. While buyers and sellers may have been available online, those who get their trades done on the floor don't necessarily need to check with the computers.

Still, "it was unusual that the Nymex printed $100 on the floor while the screen" had a price that was about 40 cents lower, says Sal Gugliara, a broker with ICAP/United Energy.

A Nymex spokesman said "it was a volatile day in our marketplace and across all commodities."

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