More record home price declines
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Macromarkets just released the November data(.pdf) for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showing an 8.4 percent year-over-year decline for the 10-City Composite Index, the steepest decline on record. Indices for individual cities are shown below:
The decline in the 10-City Composite Index exceeded the record set last month and the 20-City Composite Index fell 7.7 percent from year-ago levels, also a new record.
Robert Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC, commented:““We reached another grim milestone in the housing market in November. Not only did the 10-City Composite post another record low in its annual growth rate, but 13 of the 20 metro areas, each with data back to 1991, did the same. If you look at the monthly figures, every MSA has now posted three consecutive monthly declines. Eight of these MSAs, in addition to the two composites, have had more than 12 consecutive months of falling prices. Fourteen of the 20 MSAs, in addition to the two composites, recorded their single largest monthly decline on record in November. For the 10-City and 20-City composites this was a decline of 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively, over October”
In tabular form, the November data looks like this:
Miami showed the biggest annual decline at minus 15.1 percent, followed by San Diego at minus 13.4 percent and Las Vegas at minus 13.2 percent.
8 comments:
Why isn't Houston included?
Interesting. Neither is Philadelphia... and while housing starts may be slowing, it doesn't appear demand is slowing here - particularly in the suburbs(caveat: only based on anecdotal observations, not empirical data). But it may be why Philly isn't shown...
See the MacroMarkets Methodology Document and the Wikipedia entry for United States metropolitan area. There are 25 "metro areas" and it looks like they started with 10, then went to 20, and currently do not cover five, including Houston and the City of Brotherly Love.
It is strange that the fifth and sixth largest metropolitan areas are not included (i.e., Philadelphia & Houston).
I don't want to necessarily assign cynical motives to the folks at Macromarkets. Maybe because those two markets didn't rise OR fall much they weren't interesting enough to include and wouldn't affect the stats much either way anyway.
Most places peaked right at the start of 2006. That's about when Bernanke took over the Fed and money supply has been flat since then. It's almost like asset prices are correlated to the amount of money in the economy!
Tim, now that we have the latest installment of these prices, I wonder if I can prevail on you to update your unique inflation graph? I think you are on to something of singular importance, namely, just how close we actually are to a (net) deflationary spiral. Thanks
OK - probably either tomorrow or Friday
We definitely have deflation, at least in terms of the total money supply. All those bad mortgage loans being written off is money supply vanishing as quickly as it appeared.
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