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Pending home sales down, expectations up
Thursday, February 07, 2008
If you listen to the forward looking guidance from an industry trade group, you get what they want to give you, which does not necessarily have anything to do with what one might consider to be reasonable expectations.
A case in point is the pending home sales index that was released earlier today by the National Association of Realtors:
Here's the one that was released two years ago:
Two years ago the pending home sales index was 116, today it is 86.
Same story, different year - there is no reason to think that today's forecast is any better than the one two years ago.
5 comments:
I think the people in the real esate business are just as stupid as everyone else. All the way up to the top. They really believed that we were all getting rich by doing nothing. Just like everybody else.
Unfortunately, NAR forecasts are prone to continual revisions. It's always a good idea to take trade group projections with a grain of salt...
"NARcasting The Future: February 2008"
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2008/02/narcasting-future-february-2008.html#links
Tim and the board,
have you read this NY Times piece by Howard Milstein
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/06/opinion/06milstein.html?_r=1&scp=7&sq=february+06+2008&st=nyt&oref=slogin
Curious as to your take on this cleary revolutionary and brilliant plan? This guy is out there!
Government guarantees of more mortgages is essentially where we are headed - just look how fast the GSE changes went through. There will be much, much more to come.
Charls,
You've been added to my ridiculously long blogroll.
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