Friday, August 01, 2008
Reuters reports on the most recent recession probability update from former Fed chief Alan Greenspan. Though no odds were cited, a fair reading of his comments would indicate better than a 50-50 chance of the big "R" at this point:
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday that a slowing global economy may push the United States into recession, though it is not yet in one.Thanks for sharing.
"I think the data at this stage in the United States are not ... suggesting recession," Greenspan said in an interview on CNBC television. But he added: "We're right on the brink and I would be more surprised if we didn't (have a recession) than if we did, given the financial state."
Greenspan said companies were controlling inventories effectively and that "at this stage, I think they are the major reason why in the very short term we're fending off inflationary pressures."
However, he noted that with jobless claims rising and growth overseas slowing, it would be hard for the United States to avoid slipping into recession.