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Greenspan recession probability update alert!
Friday, August 01, 2008
Reuters reports on the most recent recession probability update from former Fed chief Alan Greenspan. Though no odds were cited, a fair reading of his comments would indicate better than a 50-50 chance of the big "R" at this point:Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday that a slowing global economy may push the United States into recession, though it is not yet in one.
Thanks for sharing.
"I think the data at this stage in the United States are not ... suggesting recession," Greenspan said in an interview on CNBC television. But he added: "We're right on the brink and I would be more surprised if we didn't (have a recession) than if we did, given the financial state."
Greenspan said companies were controlling inventories effectively and that "at this stage, I think they are the major reason why in the very short term we're fending off inflationary pressures."
However, he noted that with jobless claims rising and growth overseas slowing, it would be hard for the United States to avoid slipping into recession.
4 comments:
The data say…
No recession.
Peter Schiff:
The housing bubble was Greenspan’s doing pure and simple. He gave birth to it, nurtured it, protected it, and guided it during every stage of its development. In fact, if there was a deck of playing cards featuring the key players in this debacle, Alan Greenspan would be the ace of spades. The fact that the media still holds this joker in such high esteem is a testament to just how clueless they are. Rather than fawning over his every word, journalists should be grilling him like a CIA interrogator.
Well let's see. Inflation is stated as something like 3% by the government's own ridiculously low figures. GDP is less then 1%. So that's -2% growth for over two quarters. Looks like a recession to me. Greenspan should be in jail, or at least be barred from writing any more books.
Gerbil,
The last GDP figure (Q2 of 2008) was +1.9%.
That is "real" GDP, already adjusted for inflation.
Yes, I know, many people invent higher inflation numbers to suit their purpose.
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