Friday, December 26, 2008
Last week, the plunging price of crude oil nearly caused a scale adjustment in the graphic below, however, this week, the opening up of the $30 to $40 range was unavoidable in this last update of the fifth semi-annual "Guess the Price of Oil and Gold" contest.
Over the last seven days, crude oil tumbled from about $43 a barrel to just $37.70 after having dipped to about $35 on Wednesday. At some point in the future, it will be funny to look back on this price and think of what a bargain oil was - of course it may become even more of a bargain in the weeks and months ahead.
Gold had a late-week surge to close at $869 an ounce, now sporting a gain of 4 percent for the year (about 6 percent if you own it in physical form) and it may add to these totals next week. The price of gold has risen over the last three trading days during six of the last seven years.
Mathlete has moved from fourth place to second, but Dorcas' Daddy continues to build on his lead. The only way this gap can be closed is with a big move up in both oil and gold, the former being the more important of the two and seeming very unlikely at this time. The top ten contains the same names as last week with the exception of EB squeezing into 8th place, Tom C. having been tossed out.
I didn't check to see where my guesses stood this week...
The lucky winner, to be announced next Wednesday or Thursday will receive a free one year subscription to Iacono Research where the model portfolio had another good week and looks ready to end the year about 10 to 15 percentage points clear of broad equity markets.
Of course, this year, such a result is still quite awful.
Here's the chart from when the contest was kicked off back in early-October.
Yes, a scale change will be required on this too when the summer contest begins next year.