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More on the fourth quarter job losses
Friday, January 09, 2009
From a historical perspective, the job losses seen in the fourth quarter of last year are quite stunning. The 1.532 million decline in nonfarm payrolls is the highest quarterly total since late-1945, immediately after World War II ended, which was quickly followed by a jobs boom as a war-time economy shifted to a peace-time economy.
Granted, a "population adjusted" number would make the job loss look much less severe, but even then it would be exceed the decline in payrolls seen in the first quarter of 1975 (about 1 million which would be about 1.4 million adjusted for the growth in population).
7 comments:
In fact, if the government still figured that statistic as it did before the manipulations of Reagan and Clinton, it would be more than 16%, as economist John Williams shows.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/024777.html
This might interest you, Tim. From the Telegraph in the UK:
"Merrill Lynch says rich turning to gold bars for safety"
http://tinyurl.com/7y5z89
You can find the cumulative decline in nonfarm payroll employment in percentage terms for the 11 post-war recessions here.
Thus far the 2007 recession is middling.
if the next 3-6 months are anything like the last 3 months, it won't be middling any more......
it won't be middling any more
Listen, anything is possible. It is possible that the Yellowstone cauldera could blow tomorrow. However, it is not the possibility but the probability with a 95% confidence level that matters.
A 2 quarter horizon is not likely to take out the 1981 recession net nonfarm payroll loss at the 16th month with Obamanomics on patrol.
Perhaps Tim could plot the post-war recession net percentage employment loss (spaghetti-style) like he does with the Case-Shiller index.
I belong to the doom-and-gloom crowd as well. Nevertheless, data trumps opinion.
i just heard reports of unusual seismic activity in northern Wyoming
Everyone is expecting recession getting over soon. I have a very close friend, who graduated from Harvard. Worked for ML for over 8 years, recently he’s been “right sized” too, despite of his outstanding performance and the increasing revenue he generated. OMG, now the banking industry is badly hurt, how long it would take for those financial background guys like him get back to the job market. Banking jobs are not there as much as before as easily seen on http://www.joboutlets.com and other job sites in the region
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