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Bernanke speaks, dollar drops
Monday, December 07, 2009
For anyone wondering what was behind that late-day drop in the U.S. Dollar and the surge in nearly everything else - Fed chief Ben Bernanke was talking about the economy and monetary policy this afternoon in Washington, apparently squashing rumors that the central bank plans to raise interest rates sooner, rather than later, after Friday's labor report.
It looks as though the gold price jumped about $20 an ounce starting shortly after his speech began at 12PM EST and then another $10 in Asia. Thank God things are back to normal.
Those of you who keep track of this sort of thing might want to note this part of Bernanke's talk today where he asks himself whether he's going to cause higher inflation.
The answer is no; the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping inflation low and will be able to do so. In the near term, elevated unemployment and stable inflation expectations should keep inflation subdued, and indeed, inflation could move lower from here ... We are confident that we have all the tools necessary to withdraw monetary stimulus in a timely and effective way.Hopefully he'll be better at seeing inflation coming than he was at seeing the housing and credit bubble forming and the collapse of financial markets last year.
From a long-term perspective, my record is very comfortable. 
That's apparently what Kashkari has been doing lately, so, if you work in the mail room at a big bank and get a suspicious looking package in the mail with a postmark anywhere near Truckee, California - a place that is not too different than 
Ben S. Bernanke doesn't know how lucky he is. Tongue-lashings from Bernie Sanders, the populist senator from Vermont, are one thing. The hangman's noose is another. Section 19 of this country's founding monetary legislation, the Coinage Act of 1792, prescribed the death penalty for any official who fraudulently debased the people's money. Was the massive printing of dollar bills to lift Wall Street (and the rest of us, too) off the rocks last year a kind of fraud? If the U.S. Senate so determines, it may send Mr. Bernanke back home to Princeton. 
That's Ted S. snuggled up close to the recently added yellow diamond representing the closing prices for oil and gold yesterday - $75.47 a barrel and $1,161 an ounce, respectively.
Well, if past is precedent, the news isn't good.
I must say, I'm a bit disappointed that the Nike slogan "Just Do It" isn't getting more play with the recent (and still expanding, apparently) Tiger Woods excitement. US Magazine 
Why is it no matter how much the world advances intellectually and technologically, people keep speculating on gold?
He supplied ample liquidity when it was most needed last autumn, and he has certainly been willing to pull out every last page of the central banker playbook. If some of those decisions were mistakes, the conditions the Fed faced were extraordinary. Anyone at the helm would have made calls that in hindsight he'd regret.
Job losses for prior months saw substantial positive revisions. The loss of 219,000 positions originally reported for the month of September improved to -139,000 and the October decline of 190,000 jobs was revised to -111,000.
Elsewhere, job losses continued, Manufacturing down 41,000, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities down 34,000, and Construction down 27,000. Within the trade category, retail employment fell by 14,500, not a positive sign for a recovery in consumer spending.
Of course, it would be pretty hard to top the tumult that we experienced during the election of a year ago, but that doesn't mean it 
The Greenspan legacy on monetary policy was breaking from the Taylor Rule to provide easy money, and thus inflate bubbles. Not only did you continue that policy when you took control of the Fed, but you supported every Greenspan rate decision when you were on the Fed earlier this decade. Sometimes you even wanted to go further and provide even more easy money than Chairman Greenspan. 
My trusty Tivo has about an hour-and-a-half head start on me but, unlike NFL games, it's hard to make up that gap by zipping through huddles and commercials.
Since the yellow metal began its decade-long ascent in 2000, there have been distinct periods of rising prices, most of which have begun in the odd numbered years, peaking in the even numbered years as indicated below.
At first glance, the most recent ascent looks like a smallish version of the last two, however, the steepness of the curve, not its duration, is probably what has people calling this a bubble.
While slightly ahead of the 2005-2006 move at only half its duration, it is still back of the pace set in 2007-2008 and 40 trading days short of a similar peak.
I don't know. If this 
