Wikinvest Wire

Don't bet on the housing "rebound" continuing

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Spotted over at The Big Picture, a sobering view of the U.S. housing market from Laurie Goodman of the Amherst Securities who collected all the current mortgage delinquency data and determined that a total of 7 million homes are likely to default over the next year or so.


The probability of a borrower recovering after missing one payment (25 percent) or two payments (5 percent) is shockingly low, at least when you look back a few years. As I recall, about 90 percent of homeowners who received a notice of default (after the third missed payment) avoided foreclosure back when home prices were still going up and unemployment was much lower. Obviously, those two factors have made a world of difference.

Of course, the GSEs are on the hook for most of these losses and Laurie has an even more sobering estimate of what that will cost - $448 billion (see this item at TBP for details).

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7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm truly tired of paying for other people's unaffordable mortgages via taxes and inflation. If only they would get rid of the stupid non safety zoning regulations so people can build the size homes they can afford. (Hint, smaller, much smaller.)

The nation is heading for bankruptcy at this rate. The retirees may be heading for dog food because of all the printing. All this just to support an over priced public school system (property taxes) that doesn't even raise the nation's children very well.

Anonymous said...

"I'm truly tired of paying for other people's unaffordable mortgages via taxes and inflation."

You're not paying for anyone's mortage. You're paying for the banks who claim the entire financial system will come crashing down if you don't absorb their losses because the banks own nothing but unaffordable mortgages.

The people with unaffordable mortgages will still get foreclosed upon. The only ones who will have benefited are the banks who reaped trillions in profits before the mess and made the taxpayers pick up the tab afterwards.

But way to go pointing the finger are your fellow debt-slaves.

Anonymous said...

The money is saving the banks and upside down home owners would be better off walking away.

Anonymous said...

Bankruptcy for the bankrupt, simple solution, the responsible citizens of this country should take over. This should hold true of businesses, and homeowners. Stop this welfare mentallity, bailing out everybody at the expense of the responsible ones.

Anonymous said...

Banks are not at fault.

NO BANK put a gun to anyone's head, shoved the keys to some new house (they couldn't afford) into someone's pocket, then walked them to their car in the parking lot so they could be on their merry way. (no I don't work at the bank)

People need to grow up and take responsibility. Doesn't take a PHD to know you can't AFFORD a 500k house on a 50k salary.

Homebuyers are primarily at fault & all the marxist government housing programs did their level best to perpetuate the problem.

Some people are just stupid... Can't fix stupid.

Anonymous said...

so those highly bankers must be geniuses because the give a guy making 50K a 500k home loan? why - cuz the can sell the loans - CDOs- and make money - causing recession, etc..

Tyrone said...

There is plenty of blame to go around. Hell, I even pay tribute to all those who are to blame in my blog. Cheers!

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