Monday, March 15, 2010
In John Hussman's commentary this week he's got another loan reset chart from Credit Suisse, this one peaking even later than the one that we've all been looking at since the onset of the subprime crisis back in 2007. In this one, things don't really settle down until late-2012 instead of early that year.
Below is a slightly different schedule than we've seen. It doesn't show the first round of sub-prime resets that ended in early 2009, and is based on different classifications, but is largely consistent with the overall profile we can anticipate.Yes, that's probably good advice and it will be interesting to see what kind of a sales spurt develops between now and the end of April as mortgage rates begin to rise and the homebuyer tax credit expiration nears. It's a pretty safe bet that this year's housing data is not going to be nearly as "pleasant" as what was seen late last year.
I should note parenthetically that as you read reports about the mortgage and credit markets during the next few months, it will be extremely important to pay attention to the time period being discussed. For example, we are seeing articles with very recent datelines that are drawing conclusions based on relatively pleasant data from the fourth quarter of last year, which reflects the end of the reset lull that was completed with the low in September.