Tuesday, March 02, 2010
Here's another chart from the long dormant series of charts that put the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index up against a variety of other economic indicators. In this version, home prices are shown on the same chart as consumer sentiment with an unsurprising result.
With the exception of the early-2007 period, the two track pretty well.
In fact, if you smooth the consumer sentiment curve as shown below, the two are nearly identical, save for a delayed reaction in the outlook of Americans in 2007 leading up to the fateful events of 2008.
This is a 12-month moving average that not only takes out the month-to-month volatility but reflects the average sentiment over the last year, a metric that would seem to match up better with the change in home prices over that same period.
Any way you look at it, that mid-decade high for the mood of the consumer now seems like a distant memory - about the only thing we had to worry about then was a war that was going badly and gasoline prices that were rising toward $3 a gallon.