Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Welcome to the seventh (wow!) semi-annual "Guess the price of oil and gold contest" where readers can compete to win a free one-year subscription to the companion investment website Iacono Research by providing the closest combined guesses for the year-end price of crude oil and gold. Past contests have produced the following results:
That was quite a move to the right over the last few months and, looking back over the last few years, with the obvious exception of the late-2008 meltdown in the price of oil, the overall direction has been decidedly up and to the right.
Also note that the biggest moves tend to occur during the second half of the year - another one now clearly underway.
The last contest was won by ycching who is now enjoying the benefits of the subscription site, the results of that contest shown in the graphic below.
Your host is hopefully at the end of a cold spell, having come in 70th place and then 68th place during the last two contests. This follows a string of three top tens, so, the potential is clearly there. [Note: If I ever did win this thing, I'd get braggin' rights only and the second place finisher would receive the first place prize.]
This time around the rules are the same as they've always been.
The contest is based on the combined percentage differences between the guessed values and the closing prices on December 31st, 2009 using the near-month (February) Nymex futures contract for WTI crude oil and the COMEX closing bid price for gold bullion.
Entries may be made either by posting them in the comments section of this post or sending mail to either tim-at-iaconoresearch.com or tliacono-at-yahoo.com.
Sorry about the short window, but I'm getting a late start.
There will be two more notices such as this one as reminders and current subscribers can win a free one-year extension to their existing subscription should their guesses be the closest.
The winner will be announced on December 31st - good luck to all!
To learn more about investing in natural resources using commonly traded ETFs,
stocks, and mutual funds, see this description at Iacono Research.
For subscription details, click here.