Wikinvest Wire

WSJ joins the next gold rush

Sunday, March 07, 2010

Don't look now, but they're talking about junior gold mining stocks in the Wall Street Journal. Surely that's a first and, if not, you can probably count the times that this subject has appeared in the paper over the last ten years on one hand.

There are no references to Mark Twain and what he thinks about "gold in the ground", but Jeff D. Opdyke's report is a fairly complete description of what the junior gold mining sector is all about and it's in the free section of the Journal.

Should You Join The Next Gold Rush?
Main Street investors always want in on the ground floor of the next Microsoft or Google, or, in the commodity world, the next gusher or mother lode.

At a time when gold is above $1,100 an ounce and some expect it to go far higher, a lot of investor energy is focused on the so-called junior miners. These are the tiny mining firms that often own little more than a piece of land, some geology studies and dreams of El Dorado. So much cash has flowed into the Toronto Stock Exchange's small-company Venture Exchange—where mining firms in 2009 raised nearly $3 billion Canadian dollars—that its total market capitalization surged by 112% last year.

For too many investors, though, this pursuit of El Dorado ends up as a financial nightmare. Even if you are lucky enough to pick a miner that finds a rich vein of gold, you can arrive so early that your stake crumbles while the miner navigates the hurdles between locating a gold deposit and actually producing it.
He goes on to discuss the the different stages of a gold mining company - from the pure explorers to near-term producers to the producers themselves - and then recommends picking stocks where the company is within a year of production.

You'd think that the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDXJ) would have been worth mentioning here since it is a first-of-its-kind product, launched late last year, that offers many advantages (and some disadvantages) over selecting individual stocks.

Full Disclosure: Long GDXJ at time of writing

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The presidents discuss consumer protection

Saturday, March 06, 2010

In case you haven't already seen this video from Funny or Die that reunites all past Saturday Night Live cast members impersonating presidents, here it is.


If you didn't recognize Dan Aykroyd at first as Jimmy Carter, don't feel bad - I didn't know it was him until it this fine piece (directed by Ron Howard) was almost over.

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CFTC to rein in currency traders

The CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) is apparently intent on reining in the amount of leverage available to those who trade in the FOREX markets and, according to this story($) in today's Wall Street Journal, someone in Michigan is none-too-pleased.

An attempt by regulators to protect investors from volatile global currency markets has triggered an uproar among lawmakers, currency dealers and thousands of small traders.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has proposed rules that would reduce the amount of borrowed funds that retail investors can use when investing in the U.S. foreign-exchange market to as much as 10-to-1, from the existing 100-to-1 for major currencies.
...
Todd Lambrix, a currency day trader in Flint, Mich., is one of the many small investors opposing the CFTC plan. Mr. Lambrix has $5,000 in his currency account and often uses 100-to-1 leverage to trade currencies. Three years into trading foreign exchange, he said, he has learned how to control risk by setting enough technical limits that automatically close out trades. Last year, he broke even. "What right do you have to tell me that I can't spend my money on things I choose?" he said.
Indeed! In fact, why have any government limits on leverage at all?

If some FOREX trading company wants to allow Mr. Lambrix to have 1,000-to-1 leverage or, for that matter, 1,000,000,000-to-1, aside from the possibility that a million Mr. Lambrixes might destabilize international currency markets, why should the government stop him?

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TMTGM2?

Friday, March 05, 2010

There's a new blog taking shape that will, someday, replace the one that you are currently reading. It's a WordPress blog that I'm hosting at timiacono.com so, while the name of the blog remains the same (and, believe me, I know how important that is), the URL will be much shorter than the current one. Anyone who's interested can go take a look around and give it a test drive - leave a comment or two and see what you think.
IMAGE I'll be double-posting for probably a few more weeks until everything is squared away at the new place and then I plan to stop posting here.

The reason for the move is to simply get rid of the monstrous URL that I've been lugging around for almost five years. Actually, the five year anniversary of this blog is on the 26th of this month so, if all goes well, the switchover will be made then. Note that I tried to get tmtgm.com and some variants of that but others got there first.

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Mind the private/public sector pay gap

This data is more than a year old and has undoubtedly gotten worse in the interim, all the more reason why it may be a rude awakening for many elected officials this November as more and more voters come to learn about the widening gap between public and private sector compensation and benefits as detailed in this report in USA Today.

Federal pay ahead of private industry
Federal employees earn higher average salaries than private-sector workers in more than eight out of 10 occupations, a USA TODAY analysis of federal data finds.

Accountants, nurses, chemists, surveyors, cooks, clerks and janitors are among the wide range of jobs that get paid more on average in the federal government than in the private sector.

Overall, federal workers earned an average salary of $67,691 in 2008 for occupations that exist both in government and the private sector, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The average pay for the same mix of jobs in the private sector was $60,046 in 2008, the most recent data available.

These salary figures do not include the value of health, pension and other benefits, which averaged $40,785 per federal employee in 2008 vs. $9,882 per private worker, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Someone will have to refresh my memory about how this isn't really as it appears. If memory serves, this subject was broached here some time ago and there were a few gubment workers who disagreed with the numbers for some reason.

During my working career, I always thought of private versus public sector work as being a trade-off between higher pay and better job security with slightly better benefits.

Now it looks as though you get all three.

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Biderman: Bond inflows "scary"

Charles Biderman of TrimTabs was on CNBC yesterday to talk about the most recent fund flow data and he characterized the continuing movement of money into bond funds as "scary", noting that many retail investors don't realize that bond funds aren't a one-way bet.


Yes, it's yet another unintended consequence of ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) where investors look at money market and CD yields of less than one percent and go searching for yield - after being burnt by stocks in 2008, the logical alternative is bonds.

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Stiglitz: Federal Reserve system is corrupt

You have to give Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz credit for his candor in some remarks he made yesterday at a conference where financial market reform was discussed.

As recounted in this story over at the Huffington Post, he said a few things that should be patently obvious to anyone with a working knowledge of how the Federal Reserve system really works, yet, even to me they somehow seemed shocking.

"If we had seen a governance structure that corresponds to our Federal Reserve system, we would have been yelling and screaming and saying that country does not deserve any assistance, this is a corrupt governing structure," Stiglitz said during a conference on financial reform in New York. "It's time for us to reflect on our own structure today, and to say there are parts that can be improved."
...
To Stiglitz, the core issue is that regional Fed banks, such as the New York Fed, have clear conflicts of interest -- a result of the banks being partly governed by a board of directors that includes officers of the very banks they're supposed to be overseeing.
What's even more egregious is to think that, not only does the Federal Reserve supervise the very banks whose CEOs sit on its board, but that, even after their disastrous track record as a consumer watchdog over the last decade or so, that power appears likely to stay with the central bank despite loud protestations from those with no lobbying clout.

Clearly, the system can not be reformed from within - that much should be clear by now.

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Payrolls fall 36K, jobless rate steady at 9.7%

All the talk about the severe winter weather grossly distorting the monthly labor report turned out to be just that - talk - as both nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate were surprisingly tame during the month of February.
IMAGE Due largely to a decline in construction jobs, nonfarm payrolls fell by 36,000 in February after declines of 109,000 in December and 26,000 in January. There were total upward revisions of 35,000 for prior months' data, the December total adjusted up from -150,000 and the January job losses slightly greater than the originally reported -20,000.

Turning to the establishment survey, the unemployment rate held steady at 9.7 percent as the ranks of the unemployed increased, but at a slower rate than the workforce grew.

The number of respondents working part-time instead of full-time rose from 8.3 million to 8.8 million and the broader U-6 measure of under-employment (including this group along with discouraged workers) rose from 16.5 percent in January to 16.8 percent in February. This comes after reaching an all-time high of 17.4 percent last October.

By category, changes to nonfarm payrolls were dominated by the loss of 61,000 positions in construction and a gain of 51,000 jobs in professional and business services, the vast majority of which were temporary jobs. Importantly, steady increases in temporary positions are often a precursor to hiring for permanent positions.
IMAGE Education and health care services added their typical 32,000 jobs, however, government payrolls fell by 18,000, paced by a decline of 31,000 at the local level, about three-fourths of these job losses coming in education.

Census hiring has yet to show up in any substantive way as Federal government payrolls (excluding the U.S. Post Office) saw an increase of just 16,000. It is expected that more than a million workers will be hired in the months ahead to conduct the 2010 Census.

Interestingly, the impact of the many warnings over the past week about horrific jobs numbers that could have been reported a short time ago have contributed to a tremendous amount of enthusiasm in financial markets - judging by how prices for stocks and commodities are now rising, you'd think that a quarter of a million jobs were just added.

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Friday morning links

TOP STORIES
Unemployment rate unchanged as 36K jobs lost - AP
Dealing with fiscal deficits: Sharing the pain - Economist
Market Defies Fear of Real Estate Bubble in China - NY Times
EU Said to Develop Contingency Plans for Greek Rescue - Bloomberg
Germans to debt-ridden Greeks: Sell the Acropolis and a few islands - CSM
Senate reins in finance reform, works on compromise - USA Today
Citi CEO defends $45 billion TARP bailout - SF Gate
Sovereign-debt ratings: The grim rater - Economist

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MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil rises towards $81; China signals stimulus - Reuters
Gold May Gain on Sovereign Debt Concern - BusinessWeek
U.S. Stock futures rise after upbeat jobs report - AP
There’s Something You Should Know About March 9th - CNBC
A Simple Reform Proposal from a Recovering Derivatives Trader - Naked Capitalism
Marc Faber asks Greek to buy gold - Commodity Online

ECONOMY
Payrolls Fell 36,000, Unemployment at 9.7% - Bloomberg
House passes $15 billion jobs bill -Washington Post
Placing Our Faith in Economic Oracles - HuffPost
Federal pay ahead of private industry - USA Today
Who’s creating US jobs? Mexicans - CSM

INTERNATIONAL
Greek PM seeks EU commitment - AP
Greece's fiscal crisis: Now comes the pain - Economist
China's premier plans further action on housing prices - MarketWatch
A claim of patriotism is the last refuge of a busted government - Telegraph
Papandreou and Merkel meet today over Greek debt - Guardian
Canada Freezes Spending to Be First in G-7 to Erase Deficit - Bloomberg
Politics and the pound: Sterling throws a wobbly - Economist
China's investments in U.S. up sharply - LA Times

REAL ESTATE
Recovery? Yes, a Little - NY Times
The Future of Home-Price Appreciation - U.S. News
Mean Street: Don’t Be Brainwashed by the Housing Cult - WSJ
The Very Expensive Home Buyer Tax Credit - Calculated Risk

FED/TREASURY/BANKING
Fed's Evans sees monetary tightening "a ways away" - Reuters
Fed Presidents Say Rates Need to Be Low Early in U.S. Recovery - Bloomberg
Fannie, Freddie May Ask Banks to Eat $21 Billion of Sour Loans - Bloomberg
Stiglitz Says Federal Reserve System 'Corrupt' - HuffPost

INTERESTING
Is Antarctica Falling Apart? - LiveScience
Lake Forest secret millionaire donates fortune to college - Chicago Tribune
Man OK after steering wheel pops off while driving - AP
Yellow snow falls in Russia's Far East - Ria Novasti

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Home prices and the labor market

Thursday, March 04, 2010

Leading into tomorrow's highly anticipated monthly labor report, here's the last in the series of recently updated charts that lay the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index up against other economic data, in this case, the year-over-year change to nonfarm payrolls (see here, here, here, and here for the first four in the set).
IMAGE Second derivative-wise, things are really looking up for both housing and jobs, but, despite the promising shape of the curves above, both home prices and payrolls are still lower than they were a year ago with an uncertain near-term future, particularly for payrolls.

Current estimates are for a loss of somewhere between 50,000 and 200,000 jobs in tomorrow's labor report, a number that will have been affected in big way by the record snowfall seen during the month of February on the East Coast.

Actually, there was one more chart in the home prices vs. other data series...

Since being bought by Bank of America just before the wheels fell off the global economy in 2008, Countrywide Financial no longer trades on any stock exchange, but, this final chart can still be updated one last time.
IMAGE What's new with Angelo Mozilo anyway?

According to this report in Reuters today, the SEC is moving forward with their case against him for securities fraud and insider trading having to do with the sale of about $150 million in Countrywide stock. The Orange Man has just hired some high priced help.

It looks like we haven't seen the last of him...

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Bonds and protests from Greece to California

Like Greece, the state of California postponed bond sales last week. Some $7 billion in Greek debt is being sold today while about $2 billion in California bonds are now rescheduled for an auction sometime next week.

Also like Greece, protests in the Golden State are on the rise, the understandable response to budget cuts by a population whose government has spent far too much for far too long. According to this AP report, the situation is now getting dangerous enough that University of California officials are telling people to stay away from campus.

Officials at the University of California, Santa Cruz are telling employees and others to stay away from the campus because of safety concerns involving protesters.

An advisory was posted Thursday on the school's Web site urging people to avoid campus as protesters upset about funding cuts block main entrances.

It says a windshield was reported smashed. Police began turning cars away from the campus' main entrance around 6 a.m.

The protest is part of nationwide demonstrations against cuts to education funding on what's being called the "March 4th National Day of Action for Public Education."
It's hard to believe that, many years ago, higher education in California was virtually free. If memory serves, college costs there have been rising rapidly in recent years but are still less expensive than most of the states in the U.S.

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Greek bond sales - so far, so good

The word so far is that the Greek bond sale is being well received today with almost $10 billion in offers for less than $7 billion in debt for sale. The premium investors are demanding is roughly three percentage points more than for German bunds, the benchmark for the euro area, where they continue to remain very cool to the whole idea of a bailout.


They are still protesting in Athens, though groups aligned with the Communist Party are probably not going to get much sympathy from the EU after they do things like take over government buildings following Cabinet approval of the new austerity measures.

The Greek government seems to have done their part for now, though that hasn't stopped hedge funds from betting against the euro.

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A rising standard of living cures many ills

The one thing about the Chinese economy that makes them hard to bet against over the long term is the simple fact that they're moving up off of such a low base when it comes to developing a robust consumer class, the latest evidence of such coming in this USA Today story about rising auto sales and the nation's growing fascination with private transportation.

Ahead of the lunar new year holiday that rates as this nation's biggest party, buyers packed the Huaxiang car market in southwest Beijing. Some wanted to drive home a new car in a physical sign of their success in the soon-ending Year of the Ox; others wanted to trade up before the new Year of the Tiger that began Feb. 14.

Lu Guozhi, 50, a retired railway official, helps a friend shop for a car. They eye a Geely CK sedan, a popular Chinese brand, which comes with an attractive price tag — 39,800 yuan, or about $5,800 U.S. — and qualifies for a government tax break for smaller-engine cars. "I'd prefer a BMW, but I'll never be able to afford one," says Lu, who bought his first car a year ago. The Geely's "exterior looks good, and it doesn't use much fuel."

Slightly more than a decade since China's auto market took off, it's at an enviable place: It overtook the U.S. last year as the world's largest auto market. The upheaval ended more than a century of dominance by Detroit's auto industry.
You can have a lot of booms and busts and both businesses and the government can make lots of costly mistakes, however, when you've still got decades of rising standards of living ahead of you, that is one very strong wind at your back.

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Jobless claims down, but still high

The Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell from an upwardly revised three-month high of 498,000 to 469,000 during the week ended February 27th. As shown below, the four-week moving average fell by 3,500 to 470,750, a level that is still quite high as compared to prior recessions.
IMAGE For example, during the 2001 recession, the four-week moving average exceeded the current level only four times and, during the 1991 recession, this level was surpassed for just two months. Despite the widespread belief (amongst economists, at least) that the recession ended last summer, weekly jobless claims are still about the same as when the 1991 and 2001 recessions were at their worst.

More evidence that the current recession has little in common with the last two comes in the continuing and extended claims data. Continuing claims fell to 4.5 million, a 13-month low, however, extended claims continue to rise, now at 5.9 million.

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Thursday morning links

TOP STORIES
Greece Sells Bonds as Deficit Cuts Fuel Protest - Bloomberg
European Central Bank and BOE Stand Pat on Rates - DealBook
Robert Rubin: 'Virtually Nobody' Saw Crisis Coming - HuffPost
China's defense budget to grow 7.5% in 2010: spokesman - China Daily
Traders Seek Out the Next Greece in an Ailing Europe - NY Times
JPMorgan Tops Goldman in Investment Banking as Fees Swell 13% - Bloomberg
Geithner: Regulatory overhaul must guard consumers - Reuters
Bankers Blow $20 Billion Faster Than Gamblers - Pesek, Bloomberg
Economists: Another Financial Crisis on the Way - ABC News

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MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil falls toward $80 after 2-day jump - AP
Gold steady ahead of ECB press conference - Reuters
China’s Stocks Drop Most in World on Lending, Rate Concerns - Bloomberg
'Bubble mania' to drive up gold prices to $5,000/oz - Commodity Online
Euro Falls on Speculation ECB to Delay Stimulus Exit - Bloomberg
A guarantee for your 401k? - MSN Money

ECONOMY
Jobless Claims in U.S. Fell to 469,000 - Bloomberg
Productivity up sharply, labor costs plunge in 4Q - AP
Wal-Mart's new problem: Its customers - MSN Money
U.S. Services Expand More Than Anticipated - Bloomberg
GD, Northrop warn of possible shipyard layoffs - Reuters
In Tracking Recovery, Jagged Lines - NY Times

INTERNATIONAL
China Feb non-manufacturing PMI hits one-year low - China Daily
Cautious Steps Expected on Bank Liquidity in Europe - NY Times
Bank of England leaves interest rates at record low - Telegraph
EU reacts favorably to $6.5 billion austerity plan from Greece - Washington Post
Brazil May Overheat on Investments, Coutinho Says - Bloomberg
Internationalism cannot justify rising housing prices - China Daily
Snow and tax send house prices down 1.5% - Times Online

REAL ESTATE
A Guarantee Against Losing Cash on Homes? - Time
Rise in Valley pre-foreclosures dulls hopes for recovery - AZ Central
Consultant ordered to pay housing agency $1.9 million over fraud - LA Times
Hefty tax bill may hit those who lost home - Signs on San Diego

FED/TREASURY/BANKING
Fed proposes limits on credit card penalty fees - AP
‘Volcker Rule’ Draft Signals Obama Wants to Ease Market Impact - Bloomberg
Fed says economy stronger in February despite snow - Reuters
The Case Against Greenspan and Bernanke - Market Oracle

INTERESTING
Army nixes raid after Facebook leak? - Reuters
Janitor Facing Eviction Cleans Up After CEO Whose Bank Bought Her House - HuffPost
Pigeons Beat Humans at Solving 'Monty Hall' Problem - LiveScience
Patients try to keep appointments with jailed doc - AP

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Fox to continue watching hen house?

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

If you're a big bank, it makes perfectly good sense that the head of the U.S. banking cartel would continue in its role as the agency charged with watching out for the interests of the little guy. On the other hand, if you're the little guy, maybe it doesn't make sense for the Federal Reserve to be charged with protecting your interests, particularly since they hjaven't done such a good job in recent years.

This Bloomberg report has all the details on the latest developments on the "reform" of the banking system and how consumers are to be "protected":

For consumer advocates, housing a new agency to protect Americans from financial-product abuse within the Federal Reserve would be a defeat after lobbying for an independent body. For banks, it would represent a victory.

Barney Frank, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, called a Senate plan to house the proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency at the Fed “a joke.” Shielding consumers from harmful financial products is “the most conspicuous failure by the Fed,” Frank said in an interview yesterday.

Banks say placing the agency with the Fed alleviates their concern that an independent entity would ignore the health of the financial system. Consumer advocates say it’s a mistake because the Fed didn’t succeed in curbing abuses during the subprime lending boom that contributed to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
...
The Obama administration’s proposal for a consumer protection agency is part of the biggest overhaul of financial regulation since the 1930s. Putting it inside the Fed, instead of creating a standalone bureau, was a compromise proposed by Senator Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican, and Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat.
Don't be surprised if the banks win - they always seem to.

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Home prices and revolving credit

This could be the most interesting chart in the updated series of charts where the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is laid up against all kinds of other economic data. Two days ago it was home prices and gasoline prices in The Hummer "sweet spot" revisited and yesterday it was the mostly unexciting home values and consumer sentiment.

Today, the relationship between the nation's housing bubble and the country's outstanding revolving credit (i.e., mostly credit cards) is examined with some surprising results.
IMAGE First, you can see how consumers turned to credit cards as both the 2001 and 2008 recessions began, however, due at least in part to real estate related financial resources such as home equity lines of credit, the surge was not nearly as great in 2008 than in 2001.

Notice that as home prices started to take off in 2004, revolving credit dropped sharply, presumably because money started gushing out of the housing ATM. After turning to credit cards a few years later following the bursting of the housing bubble, it looks as though consumers have sworn off plastic for good as revolving credit continues to decline even though home prices have been staging a bit of a rebound.

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It (the IRS) pays to be a snitch

It's tax time again and, during a recession (or whatever it is we are still in at the moment) the temptation to leave out a little income or inflate a few deductions on your tax return is as strong as ever. But, those thinking of doing so should heed the warning in this CNN/Money report about how the IRS encourages snitches.

If you knew coworkers, former bosses or exes who cheated on their taxes, would you turn them in? The Internal Revenue Service can make it worth your while.

As tax season nears, we all want to get as much money back from the IRS as possible. And while taking advantage of this year's new tax breaks will put some extra money in your pocket, snitching on a tax cheat could make you rich.

In a recent poll from the IRS Oversight Board, 13% of those surveyed think cheating is acceptable, up from 9% in 2008. As the recession puts the squeeze on household finances, the lure of fudging on a tax return is even greater.

"In a down economy, the temptation to cheat on taxes is much stronger because people are in more desperate situations more often," said Bill Raabe, a tax expert at Ohio State University's business school.

More people may be just as desperate to turn in a business, rat out an ex–spouse or report a colleague to collect a reward.
For those who have fudged their taxes, it's probably not a good idea to talk about it.

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A few more tonnes for the GLD trust

It wasn't much, but yesterday's addition of 4.6 tonnes of gold to the "tonnes in the trust" at the world's most popular gold ETF - SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) - was the largest one-day addition since the middle of December.
IMAGE As compared to last year at this time, there's not much happening with the GLD inventory these days. Recall that during the first few months of 2009 they were adding gold bars like never before - a whopping 350 tonnes during just the first three months of the year.

The inventory is still about 20 tonnes below the all-time high reached last June, however, given what's happened with the gold price in recent days, that could soon change.

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Wednesday morning links

TOP STORIES
Greece announces $6.5 billion austerity plan - AP
Greece Approves Plan for New Taxes and Pay Cuts - NY Times
Consumer Agency Within Fed Seen as Victory for Banks - Bloomberg
Legislator proposes banning Japanese cars at Toyota hearing - USA Today
Fed’s Fisher Calls for Accord to Break Up Big Financial Firms - Bloomberg
Credit markets applaud, but Merkel holds key for Greece - MarketWatch
Britain Grapples With Debt of Greek Proportions - NY Times
More consumers file for bankruptcy protection - USA Today

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MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil rises to $80 on mixed US supplies report - AP
Gold hits 6-1/2 week high as dollar weakens - Reuters
Greek stocks offer some opportunities amid debt crisis - MarketWatch
Dirty Tricks That Keep Your 401(k) Returns in the Gutter - HuffPost
FDIC's Bair blasts Wall Street's values on pay - Reuters
Why diversification will work again - CNN/Money

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Full throttle with the Blue Angels

Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Atlanta Journal Constitution staffer Steve Beatty pulls some Gs in the backseat of an F/A-18 fighter prior to an Air Show featuring the Blue Angels. An embedded video could not be located, so, you'll have to go here to play it (hat tip BN).
IMAGE His reaction is probably similar to what most young men would do under circumstances such as these, though, he does seem a bit cockier than most, largely due to the gum chewing that was supposed to stop him from getting nauseous.

I don't know about you, but I got a little woozy just watching the videos.

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Postal service asks to drop Saturday deliveries

USA Today reports that mail carriers may spend their Saturday's home watching college football this fall if their request to ditch weekend delivery is approved by Congress. I don't know about you, but, while I was aware that the Postal Service wasn't exactly killing it bottom-line-wise, it comes as news to me that they too are struggling with "massive debt".

The U.S. Postal Service will move this month toward reducing mail delivery from six days a week to five, a change Postmaster General John Potter has said is critical to reducing its massive debt.

Potter said Monday he'll submit a formal request by the end of this month to the Postal Regulatory Commission, which must issue an advisory opinion on any change in mail service that would have national impact.

"We know we're going to have less mail in 2020 than we have today," Potter says. "We can't freeze wages. We can't freeze fuel costs."

Once Potter makes the request, the Postal Regulatory Commission will hold public hearings in Washington and around the USA and seek expert testimony, Commission Chairwoman Ruth Goldway said.
...
The Postal Service has already borrowed $10 billion from the U.S. Treasury. Potter says it expects to borrow another $3 billion this year, leaving it just $2 billion under the $15 billion cap set by Congress.
Is anyone not borrowing from the Treasury Department these days?

Wards of the state Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac along with the FDIC, the FHA, and other government agencies are already getting billions from Tim Geithner and the crew at Treasury or they soon will - what's a few billion more for the Post Office?

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Home prices and consumer sentiment

Here's another chart from the long dormant series of charts that put the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index up against a variety of other economic indicators. In this version, home prices are shown on the same chart as consumer sentiment with an unsurprising result.
IMAGE With the exception of the early-2007 period, the two track pretty well.

In fact, if you smooth the consumer sentiment curve as shown below, the two are nearly identical, save for a delayed reaction in the outlook of Americans in 2007 leading up to the fateful events of 2008.

This is a 12-month moving average that not only takes out the month-to-month volatility but reflects the average sentiment over the last year, a metric that would seem to match up better with the change in home prices over that same period.
IMAGE Any way you look at it, that mid-decade high for the mood of the consumer now seems like a distant memory - about the only thing we had to worry about then was a war that was going badly and gasoline prices that were rising toward $3 a gallon.

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How not to win friends and influence people

Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY) is doing his impersonation of a "one-man wrecking crew" when it comes to the 100,000 or so unemployed, who are in desperate need of having their jobless benefits extended, along with thousands of government employees who, were, as a result of Bunning's actions yesterday, told not to report to work.

The Miami Herald reports on the fallout:

The Department of Transportation furloughed nearly 2,000 employees without pay Monday as the government began to feel the impact of Republican Sen. Jim Bunning's one-man blockage of legislation that would keep a host of federal programs operating.

Bunning's "hold" also affects jobless benefits for thousands of unemployed workers, rural television customers, doctors receiving Medicare payments and others.

Bunning, R-Ky., wants the $10-billion price of extending the programs offset by reductions in spending elsewhere in the budget to not drive up the deficit.

Absent that, his objections to proceed with the legislation deny the Senate the "unanimous consent" that Senate rules require for going forward under expedited procedure. The Senate can overcome his objection if 60 of its 100 members vote to do so. So far they haven't, and doing that would take at least four days under Senate rules.
There is also this report of a testy encounter between Bunning and ABC News correspondent Jonathan Karl in a "Senate-only" elevator in the Capitol building.

Not that someone putting their foot down when it comes to rising deficits and debt isn't a good idea, but it's worth noting that Bunning plans to step down from his Senate post this fall and he does have something of a history of "erratic" behavior.

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Dr. Doom brings the gloom

Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom report thinks that U.S. stocks could fall 20 percent after making new post-crash highs this spring. That would see the S&P 500 rising toward 1,200 and then falling back below 1,000 for the first time since late last summer.


He also thinks the euro is oversold and a good short-term bet, along with Treasuries.

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Tuesday morning links

TOP STORIES
Senate talks close in on deal for Wall Street regs - AP
Goldman Discloses a New Risk: Bad Publicity - DealBook
Winter storms to distort U.S. jobless figures: Summers - Reuters
EU Sets Clock Ticking on Greece as Merkel Talks Near - Bloomberg
White House extends refinancing program for troubled homeowners - Washington Post
February 2010 Federal Tax Withholdings Plunge To Multiyear Low - Zero Hedge
Senate tries to extend jobless benefits deadline - again - CNN/Money
Australia Raises Key Interest Rate to 4% on Recovery - Bloomberg
Declaring Victory at Halftime - DebtWatch
Fed's No. 2 to depart - Reuters

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MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil gains to around $79 amid mixed US data - AP
Gold firms as fiscal worries lend support - Reuters
Stocks Rally on Prospect of Greece Agreement - Bloomberg
Chile, copper and high-stakes commodities plays - MarketWatch
“Be Conservative Not Conventional” - Saut, Raymond James
Parsing 200 years of gold trades - MarketWatch
Winter Mind Games - Kunstler, CFN

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What's behind the rising museum attendance?

Monday, March 01, 2010

America's finest news source, The Onion, tries to answer the question that's on the minds of many people in this country regarding the rising attendance at museums.
IMAGE Here's a link to the official Andrew Wyeth website and, after a quick look around, it seems that the staff at The Onion was being a bit generous in the "bleak" characterization.

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I quit my job three years ago today

Time really does fly when you're having fun. It was three years ago today that I quit my job at semiconductor test equipment manufacturer Teradyne, Inc. in Southern California to head north and then head further north a couple years after that ... we still never really look back.

The job market must be pretty awful for U.S.-based engineers these days. As I understand it, the facility where I worked in Agoura Hills that, at the peak of the tech boom had over 2,000 employees, is now down to about 10 or 20 percent of that.

I'm glad I only think about thinks like this once a year - on the anniversary of my departure in 2007 when the following post was offered up. It is reproduced in its entirety below.

* * *

After more than seven years, today is my last day at Teradyne, Inc. (NYSE: TER), a major manufacturer of test equipment for the semiconductor industry.

I'd like to thank all the great people I've worked with over the years and I wish you all the best of luck in the future.

Since joining the company in January of 2000, time spent here has been mostly enjoyable - writing software for a world-class semiconductor test platform has had more than its share of excitement and challenges.

I can't say that the last year or two have been as enjoyable as some of the earlier ones. Maybe it was because I was distracted by other interests.

Maybe too it was because "perpetual fire drill" is no way to live and there's been a steady stream of talented engineers out the front door. Despite assurances heard by employees, the attrition rate doesn't look normal to me.

Yes, I know things are changing - good luck with that.

I really can't complain - Teradyne has been pretty good to me. I'm just tired of software and tired of Southern California - it's time to move on.

No, Not Alan Greenspan

Retirement in 2007 had been planned for many years. Sometime early last year I started counting down the days. I think the countdown started after we were shown a presentation from Broadcom (NYSE: BRCM) about how we software engineers need to be more productive. This would enable Broadcom to be more productive and the bottom line for both companies would swell and some of the profits would trickle down and the stock price would go up and we'd all live happily ever after.

With more irony than could be appreciated at the time, Alan Greenspan's picture was on the opening and closing slides and at first I was waiting for everyone to say, "Surprise!", but it never came.

Everyone was so serious.

Alan Greenspan's mug was there alongside a quote extolling the virtues of increased productivity and how we could play a larger role. That's when I started crossing off days on a calendar.

It seems that, along with many other engineers, I've been just a little cog in a big wheel that has contributed to the great borrow-and-spend consumption binge that characterizes our era. Being more productive to enable more businesses to profit from the manufacturing and sale of more consumer electronics that most people don't really need and have to borrow money to pay for, well, this just doesn't sound as good as it did a couple years ago.

And if I'd learned that Teradyne equipment tested chips that go into those ridiculous BlueTooth ear dongles that people wear like they're on the set of a Star Trek movie, I may have been long gone by now.

Stock Options, Stock Purchase, Stock Grants, Stock Buybacks

Coming from a mostly staid aerospace company in 1999, I was at first taken aback by all the stock trading that went on in cubicles up and down the aisles of the engineering department. That changed rather quickly as 2000 drew to a close.

Not surprisingly, the stock options I received when joining the company expired worthless, however, there were a few other opportunities to profit in company stock during my stay. But not too many.

A big part of the reason why my wife and I are able to retire now is shown in the chart below. The natural resource sector is the new bull market, though I continue to be surprised at how few people realize this. It's been going on for five years now and shows little sign of slowing down, though the ride can get pretty bumpy from time to time.


The stock purchase plan was pretty good at Teradyne in 2003, but aside from that, it's been many disappointing years in a row. I can't believe some people got laid off a few years back and had never sold any of their stock - rode it all the way up and all the way back down.

Technology is so last century.

No More SoCal, No More Software

We will be leaving the crowded environs of Southern California this spring, not likely to return soon or often. I can't imagine what driving on these freeways will be like in five or ten years - so many angry young drivers that seem to get more reckless every year. The young men in big pickup trucks are sure to get angrier as their career prospects dim along with the housing industry.

We'll be settling in an area where a quick mid-day break might result in a view such as this, rather than the sights and sounds of the 101 freeway with cars buzzing by at 80 miles an hour.

We'll be renting for a year. There's no hurry to buy any real estate anywhere in California this year.

My software programming career officially ends today. I'd complain about having to train Rammohan, Rajasekar, and Vijayakannan last year, but I'm mostly over that now.

That last thousand lines of code I wrote might require a little attention in the year ahead. I can't say that it received my undivided attention as this day drew closer, but it should be pretty good.

I learned a little more about maps (yes, Wikipedia has an entry for this too) and the multi-headed PinInfo hydra. I'm proud to say that I completed my entire career at Teradyne without having to understand what upside-down inheritance is. At yesterday's going-away luncheon, word came that I'm better off for it.

Anyway, this missive has gone on far too long already. I have to make that drive in one last time to do an "exit interview" and then it's official.

Goodbye Teradyne.

Full Disclosure: Still no position in TER or BRCM at time of writing.

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